It hasn't been easy to get an accurate readon the NBA future of Memphis swingman Rodney Carney. Carney might just be the top athlete in all of the NCAA. He runs the floor like a Greyhound, and soars above the rim for sportscenter-worthy dunks. When his outside shot is falling, it is hard to not see Carney starring in the league someday. When he is throwing up bricks, he tends to look more like a track athlete than a basketball player. Last night against Louisiana Tech, with his outside shot falling, Carney put on a 37-point performance that NBA scouts are certain to remember.
If you haven't seen Carney play, you might wonder whey he has been a fixture in most first round mock drafts for the past two seasons. His stats are pedestrian, and his shooting numbers have been downright crummy. Nonetheless, all it takes is a few minutes of watching Carney play to realize what a top level talent he is. He has the kind of hops that could put him in the dunk contest someday, a nice (albeit streaky) jumper, and some semblance of a midrange game.
However, it must be noted that Carney is a notoriously streaky player, and a kid that takes a while to get going. If he misses his first couple of shots or doesn't get involved in the offense early, you might not notice him the rest of the night. He will float behind the 3-point line, ignore his off-the-dribble game, and sulk. Get him an early 3-pointer or open-court slam, and he is a threat to go for 30.
Compounding this is Memphis coach John Calipari's decision to bring Carney off the bench. With Carney's tendency to disappear, one would assume that he would be the last guy you would want to bring off the bench. Many games, he never wakes up, and this might be a factor in the somewhat medicore production.
Of course, all of this is forgotten when Carney gets going early. Against Louisiana Tech, his teammates found him streaking to the basket for spectacular dunks on several occasions early on, and the energized Carney never let up. He hit the set 3-point set shot, showed off a virtually unguardable hanging fadeaway from the midrange, and even attacked the basket off the dribble several times in the second half. All in all, the results were nothing short of spectacular. It is these performances that will cause the overeager draft analyst to bump Carney into the top 5.
However, there are numerous issues for Carney to firm up before his place in the lottery is set in stone. Beyond the consistency/assertiveness issues mentioned above, Carney has a tendency to rely too much on his outside shot. Despite his sometimes mind-boggling run/jump athleticism, Carney rarely takes the ball all the way to the basket unless the play is clearly ending in a dunk. His handle and court vision definitely need to improve if he is going to play his ideal 2-guard position in the NBA. His midrange game is quite evolved, but as a slasher, most of his shot attempts end with him fading away from the basket.
Along those same lines, you would like to see a player with Carney's formidable athletic gifts show up elsewhere in the stat sheet. When his head is in the game, he can do things like shut down JJ Redick for a half. However, Calipari doesn't always get that type of effort out of Carney on that end of the floor, and he definitely should be averaging more than 5 rebounds per game. The theory about Carney's all-around game coming alive if he can get going early holds water here, as he managed to contribute 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 steals against La Tech.
You won't find a more electrifying player than Rodney Carney at the college level. If he can use this breakout performance as a springboard to better production and more consistency, there really isn't a limit to how far he could rise up the 2006 draft board.
If you haven't seen Carney play, you might wonder whey he has been a fixture in most first round mock drafts for the past two seasons. His stats are pedestrian, and his shooting numbers have been downright crummy. Nonetheless, all it takes is a few minutes of watching Carney play to realize what a top level talent he is. He has the kind of hops that could put him in the dunk contest someday, a nice (albeit streaky) jumper, and some semblance of a midrange game. 
